The NO campaign have surged into a seven point lead and I think much of this is down to a significant killer argument they are now deploying - that AV will cost 250 million quid to introduce, with most undecided and everyone tightening their belts, this will certainly swing the undecideds the way of the No campaign.
£250 million isn't a lot of money in terms of what the Government spends, but tell people a figure in millions and it gets them thinking.
The problem is that it is complete rubbish, they base their figures on spending 130 million on counting machines, that won't be bought (because AV can be counted by hand) and an education programme based on the Scottish Parliamentary example. The education programme will be substantially less as a) AV is much simpler than STV, b) we've had a referendum on it, so people should be much more aware of how it works (the referendum acts an educational tool as well) c) We don't need educate people about the new powers of a parliament as we did in Scotland. d) we should use the BBC to educate people as that would be free.
But the YES campaign must respond and respond quickly, first it needs to work out how much it would cost - I'm guessing around £30 million. then display this as a real percentage of people's income and divide this figure over 4 years (the length of time until the next election.) In other words AV is going to cost you 12 and a half pence. Once they have a significantly cheap amount, they need to say that the NO campaign are lying (the machines are dream machines! etc) and that it just part of the corruption of the old system. But they need to do this fast, a media blitz is needed, without it they will lose.
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