Sunday 10 May 2015

Labour spent 5 years destroying us - where did it get them???

Do you remember this from 12 months ago? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIH-2lZF2yw The Un-credible shrinking man. 12 months before a General Election they spent an entire broadcast slaughtering us and letting the Tories off scot free!

Labour spent most of the previous parliament calling us "Yellow Tories", traitors, and diminishing everything we did in Government. They forgot to attack the Tories allowing them to take credit for the economic recovery while we got no credit.

It was miserable, dreadful and appalling night and partly we have to look at what we did wrong. However, one thing I know is that Labour spent 5 years destroying us and look where it got them.

Labour could have spent 5 years been a constructive opposition that campaigned on a centrist platform. They could have been seen as a Government in waiting. Yes, they were right to stand up over the bedroom tax and the NHS and Social Care reforms, but they could have been more reasonable about the economy and numerous other policies. Instead they adopted a class warfare, hard left stance that may have energised their activists but scared the proverbials out of anyone in the centre.

They lost the election for two main reason 1. The Economy and 2. Strategy. On the economy they made a massive strategic error. They fell into a gigantic trap. For the first two years the mantra was too far, too fast, while the country was in recession this argument resonated. In 2012 the Coalition slowed up on austerity and the economy started to recover. Labour could have congratulated the Government on following Labour's Plan B and then there economic ratings may have ticked up a bit. Instead they were petty and pathetic claiming that the economy was still rubbish. Most people actually realised the economy was improving and it damaged Labour's economic credibility, which was fatal.

On strategy, Labour pursued a 35% strategy. To achieve this they needed to destroy the Lib Dems, even discounting Scotland, this was a flawed policy.

Firstly the Lib Dems can reach Tory swing voters in areas that Labour can never touch (particularly in the South West). All that happened was that the Labour squeeze voters voted Labour and the Lib Dem/ Tory voters switchers switched to the Tories. This handed seat after seat to the Tories as far more Lib Dems seats were Tory facing than were Labour facing. You only needed to look at the 1950s to see that when the Liberal were destroyed,  you get the Tories in Government.

Secondly as we are a centrist party they had to attack from a further left standpoint. It pushed them to the left and made them unelectable to the Mondeo Man (Soccer mum) group that decides election. It was utterly crazy.

I'm sure they enjoyed destroying it but the British people are now going to see what a Tory Government is really like!

Thursday 29 May 2014

Thoughts on Rennard

When I saw the word "Rennard" in the headlines, after the week we've had, I inwardly groaned. But I was delighted when it emerged he had apologised.

Some good work had obviously gone on behind the scenes to get to this position. We now need all parties to accept the statement and move on. The only harm dragging this out will be to Lib Dems.

Chris should be re-integrated into the party. I say this for several reasons: 

Firstly he has done what was asked of him in the report. He has apologised for his conduct. As a party we do believe in due process, Chris has not been charged let alone convicted of any offence. He has engaged with a report into his behaviour and (finally) accepted the conclusions of the report. We would think it would be wrong to punish someone who has not been convicted of any offence - so why should Chris be any different?

Secondly Chris has spent most of life working for the good of the party and this should not be forgotten.

Thirdly, there is a quid pro quo - if we keep moving the goalposts then our already dubious internal procedures will simply fall apart, opening us up to legal challenges. If this happened we may be unable to kick out people who really need to be kicked out.

The rumours I heard about Chris's actions were not of the illegal type but rather of actions unbecoming of a Lib Dem Chief Executive. But the fact I heard rumours makes me think that the party failed to act and supported the powerful over the weak. We must never allow this to happen again.

To this end the party have appointed an pastoral care officer - I've been less than impressed so far. My first contact with the officer was an email requesting I fill in a survey a few weeks before polling day. The timing was completely inept. I didn't fill it in.  I ran out of time, like many other organisers.  It seemed a bit too like a hatchet job - nothing's wrong with our staff because we didn't receive any complaints. That's rubbish we were all working too hard.

I've seen in the past few months a number of examples of bad working practices. What would be good would be a booklet sent to all elected Lib Dems about inappropriate behaviour with staff. Explaining what is bullying, homophobia, sexual misconduct, harassment etc. It may get laughed at but it is important.

We must always act in accordance with our beliefs even if it costs electorally or damages a senior 
party figure. There must be no repeat of Rennard.







Wednesday 28 May 2014

Et tu Oakshott

Okay I thought that my latest blog would be called "How not to carry out a coup" but instead went for something a bit more pithy. Although to be fair Oakshott didn't stab Clegg in the back, more likely he tried to stabbed him in the front and missed.

The LibDems4change/Oakshott group made several mistakes.

MISTAKE 1 - CAME OUT AFTER WRONG ELECTION

Firstly it started after the wrong set of election results. For London it must have been a terrible shock to lose all your Councillors, but for most of us we expected the defeats (actually there was a warm glow of success for some of us). It was nothing new and for lots of us we were actually quite chuffed with the results. The despair hadn't set in.

In addition it was obvious that a lot of the plotting happened on polling day. When these people should have been trying to elect Lib Dems.

The European Elections were the right moment to do it. Many of us were shattered and terrified after these set of results. We'd never experienced only having 1 MEP under the D'hondt system. This was the time to go.

MISTAKE 2 TECHNICAL ISSUES

Caron Lindsey pointed out about legalistic things like where did they get emails from, where was the address was registered. I happened to think these things are unimportant but others do not. It made it look a bit amateurish.


MISTAKE 3 WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?

The failure to get any substantial figures to back the coup was a real problem - I didn't see a single MP (not even Sarah Teather) stand up and say Nick out. Surely if you are plotting to replace our leader you need to get some important people on board first.

MISTAKE 4 THE POLLS

I suspect Lord Oakshott thought he could remain anonymous and leak his polls. But the British Polling Institute rules meant ICM  had to release who commissioned these polls. The problem with the polls is that they seemed sneaky, underhand and damaged the prospects of the MPs in the specific seats. It's not going to be easy for Ian Swales to squeeze UKIP after the results of his seat poll.

Anybody who looks at the way the polls are done can see that it is a hatchet job. They were unweighted and furthermore ICM didn't prompt for candidates which basically makes the point of a constituency polls irrelevant.

MISTAKE 5 NO NEW STRATEGY

It was never properly outlined what the proposal post Nick would be. Would we stay in the coalition?Would Nick still be deputy MP? Who would be new leader? How would our policy/direction differ?

Libdems4change never outlined their preference. Which meant those of us on the fence like myself never had the chance to weigh one option (keep Clegg) against a post Clegg world.

I'm not going to sign the Libdems4change letters - they've cocked it up but what I now want is the Lib Dem leadership to come out say they are listening and what we are going to do about it.

Tuesday 27 May 2014

Shooting the UKIP fox

So the UKIP fox is in the Westminster henhouse - well it's not - they haven't got a single MP.

But that's not what you'd think if you beamed down from Planet Zog. The media and politicians from all three parties cannot get through an interview without talking about UKIP.

The only two political issues that seem to matter are Europe and Immigration. No wonder UKIP have just topped the poll!

There is a very human element to this - the anger most politico's feel about UKIP is understandable. They're a bunch of racists and homophobes whose policies are simplistic and treat the voters intellect with contempt. Yet they keep picking up votes. These people need to be made to understand. That's actually how I feel...until I put my campaigning head on.

UKIP have strong basic values which they communicate effectively. Their views on immigration and Europe are popular (but obviously absurd). But the number one rule of politics is to fight campaigns on your turf. Yet in 2014 all three political parties have fought on UKIPs turf and unsurprisingly they've lost.

All three parties have strong reasons to want the UKIP surge to recede. Both the Conservatives and Labour may lose seats to UKIP and the Tories may lose seats to Labour because of UKIP. For us, UKIP stands for everything that we are diametrically opposed to. The more they shift the debate away from our views the less we can push forward with our agenda.

So what can be done: Firstly it's time to draw to a close to the European and immigration debate. That means shut up about it. There is part of me that winces when Tory bankbenchers move motions for an early referendum.

Both coalition parties have good reasons to want to talk about the economy. Start talking about it - in great detail. Have debates about tax, services, deficit reduction etc. Because on all these points UKIP score badly when people know their policies. Simon Hughes comically destroyed UKIP's tax policy on Question Time a few years ago. Fundamentally I'm pretty sure UKIPs' confused Libertarian policies are not going to go down that well with the electorate.

Likewise Labour should be making points about UKIP reducing benefits and privatising the NHS. I'm not sure the UKIP voters in Rotherham would be that enamoured with these policies.

At the moment UKIP will start to die off sometime after the next General Election. Literally, most of their voters are old. But to stop a new generation of UKIP voters coming along we need to do something we haven't done in this country in a very long time.....

Build houses.

UKIP blame immigration for house prices (and rent increases), longer life expectancy is the real reason, but we can't be blaming the OAPs for the fact that most of my generation will struggle to get on the property ladder and therefore we will continue to get ripped off for rent.

This is why I'd advocate a national house building programme. Government directed to build millions of homes and fast. Green Belt, Tax incentives and planning regs would have to be looked at properly but I think the Government need to take charge. The housing market in the UK is classic example of market failure and it needs to be sorted.

Monday 26 May 2014

A few post election thoughts

Wow - it's nearly two years since I blogged - lots of catching up to do!

We had a good election ,,,,

Local Election that is, and only in Yorkshire. I'm really pleased that we held our leader in Leeds and a myriad of other Councillors. It's the first time since 2010 since I've left a count not feeling distraught.

We had a very bad election.....

The European Election results were not just bad, they were appalling. They were far far worse than I expected. We have finally answered the perennial question - should we as a pro European party fight a European election on Europe? Er no.

Mark Park explained the mistake in an interview with the BBC. He basically said that as a radical reforming party we seemed to be defending the status quo. I'm Pro European, but I'm also not blind to the EU's numerous faults. I want to see greater democratisation of the EU, I want it be more cost effective and less bureaucratic (It's sad that Edward McMillan-Scott will no longer be able to fight to ditch Strasbourg) I'd like proper reform of the common agricultural policy and much more. The problem is that by saying we were the party of IN we were often left defending things we didn't believe were right. The EU needs reform and people (even supporters of the EU) know this.

This is why the majority of the population, while supporting our membership, are at best lukewarm about the EU. We made the mistake of thinking the EU was popular amongst those "Inners." it's not, most think our membership is the least bad option. So our Pro- European message was not going to appeal to the Inners at all.

Cack handedness abounds...

The day after the results I got an email from Annette Brooke. I'm sure the email was not from Annette Brooke, I'm sure she wouldn't have being so dumb to send something so flagrantly offensive as the tripe the party decided to unleash on it's members.

Fundamentally it said that the Local Election results were good where we worked hard. For those who lost this implied their defeat was down to their own deficiencies and had nothing to do with the national mood.

While undoubtedly we had some shit Councillors and candidates who frankly got what they deserved. The vast majority I know who lost, worked bloody hard and it is a tragedy they lost. That email can only have pissed of these people and their teams. Losing is an extremely emotional experience, for some it was a kick they really didn't need.

The parties top brass need to stop rolling out the "where we work we win/were doing well where we have MPs" line as
A) It's not true - ask Manchester, who properly worked hard and still got wiped out.
B) It pisses activists off
C) Who do we think is going to pile in in 2015 to our held seats? it's going to be the teams that Councillors in wards outside the parliamentary seats. If we abandon all hope in these areas we are damaging the activist base that may save MPs
D) It ignores reality, places are bucking the trend... but we do need to do something about the trend.

However I also received an email from Libdems4change asking if I would  sign their letter trying to get Nick Clegg out. Carl Minns articulates why many of us were more than little perturbed about this http://carlminns.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/a-question-to-fellow-lib-dems-what-were.html
It reminded me a bit of the great Shed 7 song  - Where have you been tonight? You should have been electing Lib Dems not fannying about with a letter.

Anyway they should have waited more people would have been pissed off on Sunday night than Friday morning!

I won't be signing the letter.

But....

We need to talk about Kevin Nick

At the European Election when I saw the figures from Calderdale,  a place that frankly is the most naturally Lib Dem place in the region (we got 4.6% of the vote) I thought that's it NICK HAS TO GO.

A day of mulling it over has left me feeling conflicted.

On the one hand I feel that Nick is toxic and that people simply have stopped listening to him.
But the argument that Cleggigista are putting forward that we risk going through all the pain to throw it away just as we are about to reap the rewards of the economic recovery is powerful.

The best blog on Lib Dem voice I have read in the last few days is this one by Iain Roberts http://www.libdemvoice.org/opinion-we-need-to-stop-helping-the-other-parties-and-change-our-message-40339.html

It expounds something I've felt for a long time. We need to sharpen up and stop being so nice. Sod collective responsibility - we need to say some of the Government's policies such as bedroom tax are shit and we are putting up with them so we can get x,y or z.

A few years ago I listened to Chris Davies MEP rattle off a whole raft of things we had stopped that I'd never heard of. We must get these messages out there.

Ryan Coetzee is putting lots of time into branding. I fully agree with the Stronger Economy, Fairer Society stuff. But we have to back this up in Government.

A fairer society does not impose the prisoner book ban or marriage tax breaks. I know we can't stop everything but lets stop more things.

The end

Mad Tory backbenchers will want to push through a more right wing agenda to counter the UKIP threat. Simply we mustn't stand for it. Even if this means leaving the coalition early. It may even do us some good to quit over a point of principle.

Monday 13 August 2012

We are not turkey's voting for Christmas!

I haven't had chance to post since the House of Lord debacle, but last week Nick Clegg announced that he would get all our MPs to vote against boundary changes. I fully support this decision.

Firstly the coalition agreement cannot be taken in isolation the argument that that the Boundary changes is linked to the AV referendum is spurious. If you agree to a contract where you provide a specific amount of work and then you don't do all the work then the employer is likely to deduct some of your potential earnings. We can't have a deal where one party loses on the whim of another.

As a party we were going to be criticised for either been petulant or being a doormat - it's better to be petulant who gets something that we want (or in this case stops something we don't want) than viewed as weak. A message had to be sent.

The Boundary changes would have cost us MPs. We retain a large number of our seats because of the personal votes of our MPs. Bringing in new areas would have diluted these personal votes. Additionally what has happened in the way we campaign and target is that many of the wards around marginal seats have seen minimal activity as we target resources at our key parliamentary seats.

As I said in the pub at the weekend - do you think we would be turkeys voting for Christmas? After nearly a century where the Great British constitution has continually damaged us do you think we we would actually vote to make it harder for ourselves? We are re daft but not that daft.

Wednesday 11 July 2012

The Email Nick Clegg should have sent

After a day becoming more and more depressed watching the coverage of the Lords and crowing Right wing Tories and authoritarian Labour MPs I got an email from Nick Clegg which started off like this:


"Dear Rob,

This evening we overwhelmingly won an historic vote on the Second Reading of the House of Lords Reform Bill - a Bill that will finish something our party started a century ago.

This is a huge triumph for our party, and a clear mandate to deliver much needed reforms to the House of Lords. "

At the precise moment this popped into my inbox a little piece of me died. Whoever sent this email needs their head examining.

Yesterday was a disaster - we have probably lost the only opportunity we will ever have to get an elected Lords and the party needs to realise this. Everything about the coalition has changed and we need to get our heads around this.

Sending this email was trite, treated the membership with contempt and was actually dishonest. We are not stupid, we now know that Lords reform is further away after yesterday, not closer. It has been the subject to much mockery on the Internet and I'm sure Andrew Neill will have a field day with it on This Week.  Can an MP with a straight face say Yesterday was a triumph - no of course not.

Politically it's also daft - we need to appear to be angry not compliant if we are to get our own way. Cameron needs to be scared of us, not his own right wing.

This is the email I would have sent members last night if I had been Nick Clegg:

Dear Rob,

Yesterday was a day when I was proud of my party, all 57 of our MPs voted to end privilege and patronage in our democracy.

However the conduct of both the Labour Party and a significant number of Tory MPs left me ashamed to be a Parliamentarian. They were happy to scupper Lords Reform on the basis either of narrow party political gain or because they do not believe in democracy. While we passed legislation to start the ball rolling on Lords reform, getting the legislation enacted onto the statute book will be much harder now because of the wrecking antics of these MP. It was clear that we could not win the programme motion which would have set a timetable for Lords Reform which is why I agreed to withdraw it.

However this is not the end for Lords Reform, the bill will be brought back for it's second reading in the Autumn and we will fight tooth and nail to win this battle.

But we need your help - over the coming months I am asking you to "spread the word" talk to your family, your friends and your neighbours about why Lords Reform is important. Support Lords Reform online at www.fixparlaiment.org and help the Lib Dems deliver their message on the ground by delivering leaflets and knocking on doors.

We are determined to defeat the forces that protect the establishment and carry out this vital reform.

All the best

etc

I will write in the coming days about what the party should do now but one must be to be honest with their own members!